2026 Season Week 9

We are now in the back half of our schedule. Counting this weeks games we have 6 weeks left in the regular season. The most points race had pretty much no movement in rankings except one. Sleepy Squad moved up one spot to 9th place dropping Anal Explosion to the bottom. FNG retains the top spot while at the same time increasing their lead over those in striking distance. Big Daddy has fallen off the pace by 218 points and is probably out of the running. The Dinamo’s and Offsides Mother F*****! are 168 and 171 points back. If they have any aspirations of winning this thing, this week would be a good week to start making up some ground. The Reckoning, Finkle & Einhorn, & Devils Snare are all within 90 points of the top spot. Their road forward is daunting but they all still have some hope of over taking FNG. 

Last week the Sloppy Sparrows put the rest of the league on notice. They broke through (finally) and grabbed their first W of the season. The matchup page on the Yahoo website gives some hope that the Sparrows have a decent chance to snag two W’s in a row. As much as The Reckoning could use a loss hung on Finkle & Einhorn this week, some of my other models don’t show the same optimism as Yahoo does. Top record holder FNG takes on the 6-2 Dinamos. This is an opportunity for the Dinamos to chip away at the at the most points race. However Yahoo and my other models indicate that this will be a difficult task. In the end FNG probably buries the Dinamos in the most points race. In what could be our leagues closet game Big Daddy holds a slight edge in snagging a W from Sleepy Squad. What I find interesting is that one of my models shows a more than better chance for Big Daddy pinning the loss on the Sleepy’s. It looks like Anal Explosion’s woes continue this week against Devil Snare. Yahoo gives Anal E a zero percent chance of getting that W. Of course when you don’t have your lineup set, Yahoo will read it that way.  For Devils Snare my models indicate that it shouldn’t matter and they should notch another W in their belt. Yahoo likes The Reckoning’s chances this week against Offsides Mother F****! While all the teams have been smeared, kicked, mutilated, pummeled, and raped with injuries this year Offsides Mother probably has felt it the worst. The other models I use like The Reckoning to hang the L on their opponent this week and leave with the W. 

The chart above shows the average points scored for the last 3 games /L3-APF, and for the last 5 games /L5- APF. A positive trend is one where the L3-APF is higher than the L5-APF. Take a look at FNG’s L3-APF and L5-APF. FNG’s scoring is trending up and it shows up in the won loss record and most points scored. In the other direction are Anal Explosion and Sleepy Squad. In cases where the L3-APF and the L5-APF has very little separation is open for interpretation what it actually means. If the numbers are on the high side as is the case for The Reckoning it probably shows consistency and a winning record. In Big Daddy’s case I would say that the numbers are to low to indicate a wining record. Anomalies show up all the time in statistical analysis and that’s probably what Offsides Mother’s L3-APF and L5-APF show. But looking at that causes some concern for a Reckoning win this weekend.  

Later in the year I will use these numbers when predicting game scores and who will win. In another week or so I hope to have all my formulas and algorithms tweaked and ready to go for predicting games.