It was past the curves of Bratenahl
When he finally saw the light
Like lipstick smeared across the broad horizon
Gotta walk that walk
Don’t need anymore talkin’
Won’t be no compromise tonight …
No compromise …
Past the curves of Bratenahl …
Week 15, the start of our second season. Fifteen weeks ago ten of started out on a journey to get to where we are today. Our records are wiped clean. Eight of us are all 0-0. The rules are simple. Win three games and you will be crowned champion.
Fourteen weeks of statistics has the eight of us ranked and seeded into playoff slots. Yahoo has it set up for Seed 1 playing Seed 8, Seed 4 playing Seed 5, Seed 3 playing Seed 6, and Seed 2 playing Seed 7 for the opening round games. Some of the seed assignments were tweaked by our commissioner to better fit with our playoff format matching divisional teams
It was past the curves of Bratenahl
Turned right on one five two
It’s time to do some true believing
Candlelight on a second floor
Silhouette on the bedroom door
While Zimmerman sang Ma I’m only bleeding …
Past scores and trends are no guarantee for the future. The Reckoning has averaged 154.02 Pts per week. The last 3 weeks, 155.14 Pts. Anal Explosion weekly average is 138.63. Their last 3 week average is 131.97 Big Daddy’s weekly average stands at 159.38. The last 3 week average for them is 136.40 The Dinamos season average is 141.93 And their last 3 week average is 130.25
(And she said) you want proof
Here’s the naked truth
Past the curves of Bratenahl
Welcome to your new afflictions
Welcome to the soft addictions
Past the curves of Bratenahl …
He could hear ’em singing
About sweat-stained sheets and a cigarette
And a hot rod heart that ain’t done yet
Past the curves of Bratenahl …
Sleepy Squad has averaged 138.85 Pts per week for the season. The last 3 week average sits at 124.35. Offsides Mother F***! Has a season average of 153.77. Their last 3 week averages is 150.65. And finally Devils Snare weekly season average is 137.26 And their last 3 week average is 124.88.
These are only two data points. If you want to make it to the title game a team, first the weekly average should be higher than their opponent. To get “past the curves of Bratenahl” their last 3 weekly average should be trending up. Doing so builds up and grows the last 5 weekly average. Upward trending L3W’s and L5W’s point to wins.
It was past the curves of Bratenahl
Where he finally got that taste
Ain’t no doubt about it
Burnin’ up like a voodoo trance
First time for the mystery dance
And now he can’t live without it …
There is one variable that can not be controlled and can not be predicted. And that is Outlier Player Point Totals. An OPPT can be on the sky end or the basement end. All it takes is one or two OPPT’s and a team is either going home or moving on to the next round “past the curves of Bratenahl,”
(And she said) you want proof
Here’s the naked truth
Past the curves of Bratenahl
Welcome to your new afflictions
Welcome to the soft addictions
Past the curves of Bratenahl …
And the voices they keep singing
About sweat-stained sheets and a cigarette
And a hot rod heart that ain’t done yet
Past the curves of Bratenahl …
–words and music by Michael Stanley
WEEK 14 RECAP / WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS / MOST POINTS RACE
WEEK 14 RECAP
For the week I was 3-2 again. And my algos need some tweaking when it comes to nailing down the scores.
The Reckoning <> The Dinamos: Looking at the models and some of my own algorithms it’s looking like a win for The Reckoning by a close score of 141.55 to 139.03
The Reckoning survived this game with a “common disaster” in the form of losing first round keeper QB Daniels yet again. I think this is the third time this season that Daniels has not finished the game for The Reckoning. Clearly they have a QB issue which is something you don’t want to have heading into the playoffs. It will be an issue that will have to be dealt with and need some fantasy karma to get past it. “I scream your name!” The Dinamos were paced by super QB Allen and his 38+ points. But Allen needed to be a super-super QB to help the Dinamos in this one.
Big Daddy <> Finkle & Einhorn: The models don’t think that will happen. In another close game, Big Daddy for win 143.87 to 139.06
Power outage in this game but the result was still as I said it wold be. F&E’s season comes to a thudding halt. They now enter the lottery for the number 1 pick in next years draft. Big Daddy may have deflected “a common disaster” The Colts losing QB Danny Dimes probably means a heavy usage workload for RB Taylor for our league’s playoffs. And as if that wasn’t enough of a show of force Big Daddy is flexing his muscles with the return of RB Hampton. It could be some rough sledding for however stands in their way throughout the playoff run.
FNG <> Offsides Mother F****!: The models are pointing to a FNG win however by a score of 158.12 to 152.40
Nailed this one. But the score wasn’t as close as I said it was. Earlier this season FNG came out of a TNF game down something like 78 points. This week TNF was karma kind to them with a 90 point scoring outburst of their own. After that all OFM! could do was try to hang onto the number 1 playoff seed. Unfortunately that didn’t happen either as they fell short of the bar set by The Reckoning. And now OFM! head off into the playoffs on a two game losing streak.
Devils Snare <> Sleepy Squad: I’m going to borrow the Dinamos silver dollar and flip the coin. This one goes to Devils Snare.
This one did not go to Devils Snare. Maybe I should have done best two out three on the coin flip. Sleepy Squad pretty scored what I thought they would but Devils Snare did not. I think the issue is that they’ve never fully recovered from “a common disaster” of losing a QB or two. With a little bit of good fantasy karma QB Flacco will be released by the Bengals and he signs with the Colts and is under center this weekend as we enter our playoffs. But that probably won’t happen though.
Anal Explosion <> Sloppy Sparrows: In our least closest game of the week Anal E wins by a score of 141.26 to 127.50.
Gentlemen, this game was nothing but pure Fantasy Karma! Not only was Anal E supposed to win, the Sloppy Sparrows tried to hand them the game by paring their roster and adding prospective players for next year. In doing so their starting lineup did not consist of two kickers and a DST. In what should have been an easy peasy win for Anal E turned out to be nothin but a Fantasy Karma slap in the face followed by a kick in the balls. Forget about the anal smack!
WEEK 15 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
#1 The Reckoning <> #8 Anal Explosion
Head to Head: The Reckoning 2-0.
Average weekly points scored: The Reckoning 154.02 | Anal Explosion 138.63
Last 3-weekly average pts scored: The Reckoning 155.14 | Anal Explosion 131.97
Despite The Reckoning coming into the playoffs on a five game winning streak and Anal Explosion coming in on a two game winning streak, this was not an easy game to gauge. Favorable and unfavorable match ups come into play as well as some questions surrounding some QB’s and their health statuses. And lets not forget about some recent “common disasters.” Throw in all of that uncertainty and the models show a tight game on the score front with a very strong possibility of Anal Explosion exiting the weekend with the win. I don’t have a clue which of my models to believe. I do know this, it will take the blessings of Fantasy Karma to garner the win. In six playoff games going back to 2018 A&E is 3-3. In nine playoff games over the same period The Reckoning is 4-5. In FF playoff experience is not a thing. Therefore, “I scream your name” over and over again. However I fear it will all be in vain leaving The Reckoning with their “world empty without you babe” wondering how they misjudged “the curves of Bratenahl.”
#4 Big Daddy <> #5 Dinamos
Head to Head: Split the series 1-1
Average weekly points scored: Big Daddy 159.38 | Dinamos 141.93
Last 3-weekly average pts scored: Big Daddy 136.40 | Dinamos 130.25
Big Daddy enters the playoffs with just one win in the last four games. But that win came last week. The Dinamos have two wins over the last four games, but lost last week. Big Daddy is getting back a RB just in time for their title defense. Since 2018 both teams have played twelve playoff games. Over that span the Dinamos are 6-6. Big Daddy is 8-4 with two titles to brag about. The only metric that favors a Dinamo victory are the averages for the last three games. Over that span the Dinamos averaged 130.25 points. Big Daddy, just 127.17. But the models are telling us that Big Daddy gets the W in this one.
#3 Sleepy Squad <> #6 FNG
Head to Head: Sleepy Squad 2-0
Average weekly points scored: Sleepy Squad 138.85 | FNG 151.04
Last 3-weekly average pts scored: Sleepy Squad 124.35 | FNG 173.02
Both teams enter the playoffs on winning streaks. FNG slides in with a three game heater while Sleepy Squad is streaking in with a four gamer. Since 2018 Sleepy Squad has a 5-6 playoff record. FNG’s playoff record is 4-3 which includes one title. The past few weeks FNG has gone on a scoring bender and is probably the leagues hottest team right now. Since W10’s season high of 172.08 the S-Squad has struggled with scoring. The models indicate a continuation of that. FNG wins this W15 game.
#2 Offsides Mother F****! <> #7 Devils Snare
Head to Head: Offsides Mother F****! 2-0
Average weekly points scored: Offsides Mother F****! 153.77 | Devils Snare 137.26
Last 3-weekly average pts scored: Offsides Mother F****! 150.65 | Devil Snare 124.88
Cruising through the first ten weeks of the season with an 8-2 record, OFM! is just 2-2 in the final four with a two game losing streak. Devils Snare enters the playoffs with just one win in the last four weeks. OFM! holds the 3 week moving average 150.65 to 137.26 And we know they are capable of scoring points at a moments notice. This is OFM!’s second year in the league, so the playoff record isn’t much to see at 0-1. Devils Snare holds a 4-5 playoff record with one title. The models kind of show a close game but DS falls short by every measure. OFM! for their first playoff win this week.
MOST POINTS RACE
This wasn’t much of a race after the first few weeks of the season. Big Daddy took the reigns and the rest of us were left chasing him down. Nobody caught him. Nobody even came close. Congratulations Big Daddy!
| Rank | Team | Change | Pts. | Pts Behind |
| 1 | Big Daddy | – | 2231.38 | – |
| 2 | The Reckoning | Up 1 | 2156.26 | 75.12 |
| 3 | Offsides Mother F***! | Down 1 | 2152.80 | 78.58 |
| 4 | FNG | – | 2114.54 | 116.84 |
| 5 | Dinamos | – | 1987.08 | 244.30 |
| 6 | Sleepy Squad | Up 2 | 1943.86 | 287.52 |
| 7 | Anal Explosion | Down 1 | 1940.88 | 290.50 |
| 8 | Devils Snare | Down 1 | 1921.66 | 309.72 |
| 9 | Finkle & Einhorn | – | 1859.34 | 372.04 |
| 10 | Sloppy Sparrows | – | 1734.08 | 497.30 |