Ladies and gentlemen step inside
And dance on the tears that the king has cried
The boom years are over, the queen has died
It’s you who will buy him a beggar’s bride…yeah, yeah
Eight of us entered this past week’s games with title aspirations. Now four of use have the glint and gleam of that title in sight. On the week the biggest shock isn’t that Devils Snare, Anal Explosion, or even FNG were eliminated. But that Big Daddy was eliminated.
Well am I lost then,
lost in the funhouse again
Well am I lost then,
lost in the funhouse again
FNG was supposed to win. The write up below will have more to say on that. But FNG, Devils Snare, and Anal Explosion are in good company this week despite their loss. They are all lead by Big Daddy. At the start of the season Big Daddy let us know that they were going for a repeat title. For a period of about eight weeks it looked like they would. And even now they stood a good chance of doing so until this week. I have more to say on that later too.
In the meantime please join me and
let’s all….
Tip your hat to the crow, he’s the barnyard boss
Take a bow to the sow for the pearls she tossed
The scarecrow is there where he always was
Hanging like a strawman on a matchstick cross…yeah, yeah
Big Daddy, remember this; Flags fly forever. You still have 2024’s championship flag along with your previous champ ship flags flying high and proud!
Well am I lost then,
lost in the funhouse again
to fade
–words and music by Jonah Koslen
WEEK 15 RECAP / WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
WEEK 15 RECAP
#1 The Reckoning 158.32 <> #8 Anal Explosion 120.56
However I fear it will all be in vain leaving The Reckoning with their “world empty without you babe” wondering how they misjudged “the curves of Bratenahl.”
Looks like I missed this this game. No misjudging “the curves of Bratenahl“ here. Oh, I did my share of “I scream your name” and for one more week I get to scream some more. What I didn’t expect to see however was a grandfather QB in Anal Explosion’s lineup. I was secretly rooting for that grandpa QB to play well. Just not well enough to win the game for Anal E. Some noteworthy point totals. Anal E’s RB Robinson and his 29.50 and WR Jennings with 18.70 both came to play and both were looking to play next week. The Reckoning were lead by K Myers’ 24 pts, RB K Williams lead their ground game with 21.80 pts and QB Mayfield had a pretty decent game with 18.18 pts. The Baker man had been struggling of late.
#4 Big Daddy 169.74 <> #5 Dinamos 179.56
Over that span the Dinamos averaged 151.22 points. Big Daddy, just 127.17. But the models are telling us that Big Daddy gets the W in this one.
This game was projected to be an easy win for Big Daddy. They met their projected point total of 166.85 pts and then some. Instead “the king has cried” and “the boom years are over.” Remember my comment last week about OPPT’s? Outlier Player Point Totals? The Dinamos were paying attention to that post. They came out of this game with four OPPT’s! THAT. Was the difference here. Fifth round draft pick wr McBride scored his season high of 37.40 points. WR Williams just missed his season high of 26.90 with 26.40 pts scored. He was projected to score just 15.04. When a player only plays in eight games you have a tendency to over look him. Even if it’s wr Kittle. But Kittle has scored over 20 pts in three of those games. Projected for just 13.38, he scored 22.80 this week. While wr Goedert didn’t score a season high, he missed that by just 1 point but out scored his 9.12 projection with a total of 25 points. Not bad for a round 20 draft pick! All told, the Dinamos outscored their projection by over 44 pts.
#3 Sleepy Squad 167.00 <> #6 FNG 133.04
Since W10’s season high of 172.08 the S-Squad has struggled with scoring. The models indicate a continuation of that. FNG wins this W15 game.
OPPT’s can go the other way too. Just look at FNG’s boxscore. RB Gibbs, RB Judkins, and WR Watson are all on the negative side of OPPT. Compound that with two positive OPPT’s from your opponent and you have the makings of an upset. For Sleepy Squad the story starts with QB Lawrence and his 39.30pts. Where the hell did that come from? That’s super QB Allen territory. For the second time this season RB Henderson scored over 30 pts in a game. The final piece to this game is this; Sleepy Squad outscored their projection while FNG fell well short of theirs.
#2 Offsides Mother F****! 191.60 <> #7 Devils Snare 134.52
The models kind of show a close game but DS falls short by every measure. OFM! for their first playoff win this week.
Well the models showed that OFM! would win, but this wasn’t all that close. Devils Snare put up kind of a good fight but like a fish on the end of a worm filled hook, they were reeled in. QB Cousins turned in a OPPT performance by out scoring his projection. The same for WR Sutton. The issue for Devils Snare was that OFM! Had three OPPT’s of their own. I’ll start with the defense. Twenty points from some players doesn’t raise an eyebrow. But when its from a DST it raises both eyebrows! RB Cook nearly doubled his projection to score 31.10 pts. And WR St.Brown sure doesn’t look like his recent injury is slowing him down. His 41.40 points was a season high.
WEEK 16 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
#1 The Reckoning <> #5 Dinamos
Head to Head: The Reckoning 2-0.
Average weekly points scored: The Reckoning 154.31 | Dinamos 144.44
Last 3-weekly average pts scored: The Reckoning 158.57 | Dinamos 157.61
I’ve read and heard someplace in my 24,900+ days that I’ve walked this earth that it is difficult to beat an opponent three times in one season. On Sunday night when I mentioned to my wife that it looks like The Reckoning will have to face Igor’s team next weekend her response was, “Oh boy!” Even she knows that over the years the Dinamos have a knack for knocking my teams out of the playoffs. When I look at the models, it looks like The Reckoning will prevail. When I look at the trends it looks as though the Dinamos will prevail. On one hand I think this game comes down to one factor. And that is super QB Allen visiting Cleaveland. I know the Browns defense is good. But they’ve been burned before. The Reckoning will need that vaulted Browns defense to slow down super QB Allen. When making these predictions I make a conscious effort to be impartial. I want to say that The Reckoning will win. In my gut I can feel it coming. The Dinamos once again knock The Reckoning out of the playoffs. Ah, the hell with it. I’m calling on Fantasy Karma’s blessing again, “I scream your name” and I will leave my voice hoarse this weekend doing so. With a pucker factor of 9, final score The Reckoning 151.73 and the Dinamos 149.43.
#2 Offsides Mother F****! <> #3 Sleepy Squad
Head to Head: 1-1
Average weekly points scored: Offsides Mother F****! 156.29 | Sleepy Squad 140.72
Last 3-weekly average pts scored: Offsides Mother F****! 159.19 | Sleepy Squad 143.44
Everything about this game screams a win for OFM! Their last 5 average points scored is 158.97. That’s less than a point higher than their 3 week moving average. This team has been scoring points at will even when they lose. Sleepy Squad has just a 133.14 for a 5 week moving average in points scored. Their 3 week moving average for points scored is higher by just over 10 points. They’re trending up, but they are not posting 160+ points on a consistent basis. Take into account that the match ups and the models are both struggling to come up with enough points to match their 3 game average. OFM! will have no such issue. It looks like Jeremiah (did I spell that right?) will make it to the title game in just his second season. Brandon’s quest to a return to the title game for the second year in a row will fail by a score of 160.38 to 139.79 in favor of OFM!
Music Volume begins around the 13 second mark.